Trump and China-India

Memes putting Trump (and Trumpers) in the saffron orange colours of India’s ruling Hindu-right BJP party have been popular in the last week indicating great Indian enthusiasm for his return to power.

I recently discovered a new podcast, the Brookings Institution’s Global India, which I strongly recommend. In one episode, former Indian ambassadors talk of China-India relations as sui generis - meaning a category of its own outside of the logic of Sino-US or Indo-US relations. That may be largely true but the US remains an important factor and a useful way into thinking about Sino-Indian relations.

Different reactions within China and India to the re-election of Donald Trump illustrate the point and suggest that Sino-Indian relations are more likely to remain fractious and distrustful rather than set for significant improvement.

Many in China were surprised at how quick Chinese President, Xi Jinping, was to send congratulations to Donald Trump. The man who upturned America’s consensus that China’s prosperity was good for the US and first imposed trade tariffs and tech restrictions was never going to be Beijing’s favoured candidate - particularly recalling his rhetoric during Covid about “Wuhan flu” and the “China virus”. Kamala Harris was preferred by many because although expected to continue the basic policy of containing China, it was assumed she would do so in a less extreme and more predictable way.

The usual blustering dismissal of US electoral democracy was widespread in China’s media and projected a calculated self-assurance. Cartoonish Republicans and Democrats wrestle over dollars and exchange spittle barrages in a tawdry political ‘game’ while real insecurities faced by the poor old American people are ignored. The Global Times, one of China’s more belligerent media platforms, reported on fears of violence in the run-up to voting and others focused on the profound contradictions of US society and how efforts to contain China had been self-defeating. Xinhua argued that China was far better placed than the US to survive economic warfare.

Nonetheless, the government is worried about Trump redux. That the talk of massive tariffs on Chinese goods might come true is suggested by the fact that Trump’s advisers really seem to believe that this will improve the US’s own economy. The impact could be severe, with international and Chinese banks talking about a hit to GDP growth of anywhere between 1-2.5% ( a significant chunk of the official 5% target). The government is also worried about an intensification of the so-called New Cold War. Biden has been tough but his talk was of competition not outright conflict. Anxieties now centre on how Trump will pursue an all-around Cold War on China raising pressure on multiple fronts. Xi’s prompt outreach shows that Beijing will try to engage Trump to mitigate all this. But there is little optimism.

For all the surface confidence there is disquiet amongst policymakers. And some have seen the stimulus package that was announced on Friday, just days after the US election, as a defensive step to provide some protection for a desperately struggling economy that can no longer rely on external trade.

Intriguingly, for those who follow Sino-Indian relations, the Chinese media also announced last week an agreement with India to try and begin a return to more normal relations, upended since at least 2020 by vicious fighting between troops in the high Himalayan border area. One account romantically claimed that cooperation between China and India is the natural order of things and would help isolate a disruptive US.

But it seems obvious that a Trump victory is not going to make it easier for Beijing to try and overcome the disadvantage it suffers in the US-India-China triangle. The BJP government is highly unlikely to risk any damage to the much-valued India-US relationship, including the personal rapport between Modi and Trump, to pursue dubious gains from engaging more closely with a distrusted China.

There is certainly much criticism of Trump within India. One major newspaper talks of Americans’ need to ‘Rein in the Darkness’ and of Trump’s ‘sordid’ affairs. The Wire was particularly tough suggesting he has ignorantly waded into Bangladesh-Indian relations in order to appeal to the anti-Muslim sentiments of many voting Indian Americans. While others are more restrained, they still urge caution suggesting that Trump’s unpredictability poses challenges for India in many ways.

Nonetheless, while the BJP-aligned business community in India certainly also has reservations about Trump, it eyes opportunities. Trump’s talk of shutting borders, ending support for Ukraine, ramping up support for Israel, and, of course, huge tariffs across the board is hardly welcomed. But these same people also see that a major regime of tariffs on Chinese trade would create greater scope for those looking to ride a ‘China + 1 strategy’, in which manufacturers relocate capacity from China elsewhere to lower risk. Trump’s penchant for tax cuts also wins approval from the many Indians operating and investing in the US.

But enthusiasm goes beyond these commercial factors because Modi’s India and Trump’s America share a great deal in terms of tone and even ideology. Trump’s hardline on China is very popular in India where Beijing is viewed with great distrust and regarded as a hostile actor. The unsettled border has become once again an issue of great sensitivity in the relationship and this makes other issues like China’s meddling in India’s neighbourhood, its failure to back India’s case for a permanent seat at the UN Security Council, and its exclusive attitude to the South China Sea all appear worse. While India will continue to follow its own interests, buying much Russian and Iranian oil despite US opposition, the ‘China threat’ offers major common ground for Modi and Trump.

Solidarity is cemented by Trump’s unprecedented willingness to talk the communal language of Modi’s BJP. His intervention into India-Bangladesh relations involved adopting the BJP’s language and, some-argue, inflated claims about violence done by Bangldesh’s Muslim majority on the Hindu minority in the wake of the autocratic Sheikh Hassina’s sudden departure, a development that alarmed her longtime ally the BJP. Hence Trump’s popularity with the BJP’s self-consciously Hindu base. One result is that he is backed in the US by the Republican Hindu Coalition. And in India priests in their saffron robes have performed ceremonies celebrating Trump’s victory. BJP supporters circulate videos of Trump declaring himself pro-Hindu and an ally in the fight against ‘radical Islamic terrorism’. Others post mocked-up clips showing him dressed in saffron, a true devotee of the Hindu cause.

By contrast, US Democrats are seen as interfering in Indian affairs and out of sympathy with the Hindutva agenda. During the elections, BJP figures claimed that the Democrats opposed the rebuilding of the Ram temple at Ayodhya and the annulment of Article 370, symbolic moves for the Hindu-right which put India’s Muslims in their place. Democrat government officials are also regarded as far more likely to lecture India on human rights. And there was much irritation too in BJP circles at the tendency of Biden officials to speak directly with non-BJP governments in power at the Indian state level, such as Jammu & Kashmir and Andhra.

There are specific historical and structural factors which cause difficulties in Sino-Indian relations. And the US and India were always likely to increase their cooperation to balance a rising China. But in a context in which many Chinese see Trump’s America as especially and actively hostile while the BJP feels genuine warmth from a MAGA Washington the US is an obstacle to any quick recovery in China-India relations.